Finding value in every roster spot.

Roster Memo

Where clubs leave wins and money on the table, across rosters, depth charts and personnel. Every memo is a recommendation to a real club, and every forecast is graded in public.

On 40-man rosters
1,115
As of 2026-11-05
Committed to 2027
$4.0B
Contracts plus estimates
IL placements, 2026
888
48,384 player-days lost
Players used, 2026
1,509
1,542 options to the minors
Quiet spots
18
Where public stats say little
Forecasts logged
0
None graded yet

The Depth Index

All 30 clubs →

Expected wins in 2027: top and bottom 10

Each club's whole roster, after simulated injuries, as it stands today. Dot shows the mean; bar shows the 80% range of outcomes.

Top 10

60708090100110LAD: rank 1 of 30, 95.1 expected wins, 80% range 85 to 105LAD95.1NYY: rank 2 of 30, 86.6 expected wins, 80% range 76 to 97NYY86.6MIL: rank 3 of 30, 85.3 expected wins, 80% range 75 to 96MIL85.3NYM: rank 4 of 30, 84.8 expected wins, 80% range 75 to 95NYM84.8BOS: rank 5 of 30, 84.5 expected wins, 80% range 75 to 95BOS84.5PHI: rank 6 of 30, 84.3 expected wins, 80% range 74 to 94PHI84.3ATL: rank 7 of 30, 83.6 expected wins, 80% range 74 to 94ATL83.6SEA: rank 8 of 30, 82.7 expected wins, 80% range 73 to 93SEA82.7PIT: rank 9 of 30, 82.5 expected wins, 80% range 73 to 93PIT82.5AZ: rank 10 of 30, 82.2 expected wins, 80% range 72 to 92AZ82.2

Bottom 10

60708090100110MIN: rank 21 of 30, 78.1 expected wins, 80% range 68 to 88MIN78.1STL: rank 22 of 30, 77.7 expected wins, 80% range 68 to 88STL77.7BAL: rank 23 of 30, 76.9 expected wins, 80% range 67 to 87BAL76.9CHC: rank 24 of 30, 76.2 expected wins, 80% range 66 to 86CHC76.2TB: rank 25 of 30, 76.2 expected wins, 80% range 66 to 86TB76.2CWS: rank 26 of 30, 75.9 expected wins, 80% range 66 to 86CWS75.9CIN: rank 27 of 30, 75.4 expected wins, 80% range 65 to 85CIN75.4WSH: rank 28 of 30, 74.6 expected wins, 80% range 65 to 85WSH74.6LAA: rank 29 of 30, 72.5 expected wins, 80% range 62 to 82LAA72.5COL: rank 30 of 30, 69.7 expected wins, 80% range 60 to 80COL69.7
RkClubExp. wins80% rangeLost to injuryWeakest spot
1LAD95.185–1051.1Second base
2NYY86.676–974.1Shortstop
3MIL85.375–963.4Third base
4NYM84.875–952.6Designated hitter
5BOS84.575–953.5Shortstop
6PHI84.374–944.3Right field
7ATL83.674–943.1Shortstop
8SEA82.773–931.4Left field
9PIT82.573–933.2Catcher
10AZ82.272–923.0Rotation
21MIN78.168–881.5First base
22STL77.768–881.5Center field
23BAL76.967–872.2Rotation
24CHC76.266–862.3Rotation
25TB76.266–862.8Shortstop
26CWS75.966–862.6Rotation
27CIN75.465–851.8Bullpen
28WSH74.665–852.2Bullpen
29LAA72.562–821.9Bullpen
30COL69.760–801.2Rotation

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at "www.retrosheet.org". Player ID links come from the Chadwick Baseball Bureau register (Open Data Commons Attribution License). Rosters, transactions, minor league and 2026 statistics, and defensive measures come from MLB sources. We publish only our own derived results. Methods are on the Model page.

Source: Roster Memo season simulatorPRELIMINARY

Wins and Dollars

Surplus by club →

Who gets the most roster for the money

Expected 2027 wins against money committed to 2027. Dashed lines mark the league averages, so clubs toward the top left are getting the most for what they spend.

707580859095050100150200250300More wins, less moneyFewer wins, more moneyLos Angeles Dodgers: 95.1 expected wins, about $218.0M committed for 2027LADNew York Yankees: 86.6 expected wins, about $259.4M committed for 2027NYYMilwaukee Brewers: 85.3 expected wins, about $86.0M committed for 2027MILNew York Mets: 84.8 expected wins, about $222.3M committed for 2027NYMBoston Red Sox: 84.5 expected wins, about $147.2M committed for 2027BOSPhiladelphia Phillies: 84.3 expected wins, about $276.6M committed for 2027PHIAtlanta Braves: 83.6 expected wins, about $157.7M committed for 2027ATLSeattle Mariners: 82.7 expected wins, about $151.2M committed for 2027SEAPittsburgh Pirates: 82.5 expected wins, about $114.2M committed for 2027PITArizona Diamondbacks: 82.2 expected wins, about $120.8M committed for 2027AZKansas City Royals: 80.8 expected wins, about $120.9M committed for 2027KCDetroit Tigers: 80.5 expected wins, about $96.0M committed for 2027DETCleveland Guardians: 80.4 expected wins, about $68.1M committed for 2027CLESan Francisco Giants: 79.8 expected wins, about $124.7M committed for 2027SFAthletics: 79.7 expected wins, about $87.3M committed for 2027ATHToronto Blue Jays: 79.7 expected wins, about $145.4M committed for 2027TORTexas Rangers: 79.5 expected wins, about $167.9M committed for 2027TEXMiami Marlins: 79.2 expected wins, about $97.3M committed for 2027MIASan Diego Padres: 78.9 expected wins, about $154.9M committed for 2027SDHouston Astros: 78.6 expected wins, about $195.6M committed for 2027HOUMinnesota Twins: 78.1 expected wins, about $132.9M committed for 2027MINSt. Louis Cardinals: 77.7 expected wins, about $70.2M committed for 2027STLBaltimore Orioles: 76.9 expected wins, about $128.2M committed for 2027BALChicago Cubs: 76.2 expected wins, about $89.5M committed for 2027CHCTampa Bay Rays: 76.2 expected wins, about $117.2M committed for 2027TBChicago White Sox: 75.9 expected wins, about $108.1M committed for 2027CWSCincinnati Reds: 75.4 expected wins, about $67.1M committed for 2027CINWashington Nationals: 74.6 expected wins, about $66.4M committed for 2027WSHLos Angeles Angels: 72.5 expected wins, about $112.1M committed for 2027LAAColorado Rockies: 69.7 expected wins, about $92.1M committed for 2027COLCommitted to 2027 ($M)Expected wins
ClubExp. winsCommittedUnpriced players
LAD95.1$218.0M8
NYY86.6$259.4M2
MIL85.3$86.0M2
NYM84.8$222.3M9
BOS84.5$147.2M6
PHI84.3$276.6M4
ATL83.6$157.7M7
SEA82.7$151.2M2
PIT82.5$114.2M1
AZ82.2$120.8M3
KC80.8$120.9M6
DET80.5$96.0M3
CLE80.4$68.1M3
SF79.8$124.7M5
ATH79.7$87.3M3
TOR79.7$145.4M3
TEX79.5$167.9M1
MIA79.2$97.3M1
SD78.9$154.9M5
HOU78.6$195.6M3
MIN78.1$132.9M1
STL77.7$70.2M1
BAL76.9$128.2M3
CHC76.2$89.5M4
TB76.2$117.2M3
CWS75.9$108.1M2
CIN75.4$67.1M3
WSH74.6$66.4M0
LAA72.5$112.1M3
COL69.7$92.1M3

Contracts are luxury-tax values from public reporting, linked on each club page. Arbitration salaries are our estimates. See the Model page.

Source: Roster Memo season simulator and contract filePRELIMINARY

The Data Desk

All leads →

What stands out in the numbers this refresh, strangest first. Facts, not verdicts.

The Injury Ledger, 2026

Player-days lost to the injured list, 2026

Counted from every injured list placement and activation with a major league club during the season.

San Francisco Giants: 2,374 player-days lost (1,389 pitchers, 985 hitters), 45 placementsSF2,374Chicago Cubs: 2,262 player-days lost (1,950 pitchers, 312 hitters), 32 placementsCHC2,262Los Angeles Dodgers: 2,253 player-days lost (1,810 pitchers, 443 hitters), 34 placementsLAD2,253Detroit Tigers: 2,208 player-days lost (1,360 pitchers, 848 hitters), 33 placementsDET2,208Arizona Diamondbacks: 2,200 player-days lost (1,369 pitchers, 831 hitters), 29 placementsAZ2,200Toronto Blue Jays: 2,182 player-days lost (1,417 pitchers, 765 hitters), 35 placementsTOR2,182Boston Red Sox: 2,076 player-days lost (1,173 pitchers, 903 hitters), 38 placementsBOS2,076Baltimore Orioles: 1,940 player-days lost (1,183 pitchers, 757 hitters), 33 placementsBAL1,940Colorado Rockies: 1,937 player-days lost (1,504 pitchers, 433 hitters), 35 placementsCOL1,937Chicago White Sox: 1,889 player-days lost (1,107 pitchers, 782 hitters), 29 placementsCWS1,889New York Mets: 1,864 player-days lost (1,201 pitchers, 663 hitters), 32 placementsNYM1,864Texas Rangers: 1,798 player-days lost (1,132 pitchers, 666 hitters), 34 placementsTEX1,798Houston Astros: 1,769 player-days lost (1,185 pitchers, 584 hitters), 37 placementsHOU1,769Los Angeles Angels: 1,727 player-days lost (903 pitchers, 824 hitters), 34 placementsLAA1,727Kansas City Royals: 1,712 player-days lost (1,342 pitchers, 370 hitters), 27 placementsKC1,712Milwaukee Brewers: 1,681 player-days lost (1,178 pitchers, 503 hitters), 33 placementsMIL1,681Atlanta Braves: 1,636 player-days lost (1,265 pitchers, 371 hitters), 30 placementsATL1,636San Diego Padres: 1,630 player-days lost (1,125 pitchers, 505 hitters), 31 placementsSD1,630Tampa Bay Rays: 1,587 player-days lost (1,153 pitchers, 434 hitters), 35 placementsTB1,587Seattle Mariners: 1,424 player-days lost (731 pitchers, 693 hitters), 31 placementsSEA1,424Minnesota Twins: 1,388 player-days lost (1,224 pitchers, 164 hitters), 29 placementsMIN1,388Athletics: 1,364 player-days lost (707 pitchers, 657 hitters), 31 placementsATH1,364Miami Marlins: 1,330 player-days lost (1,065 pitchers, 265 hitters), 26 placementsMIA1,330Washington Nationals: 1,248 player-days lost (1,143 pitchers, 105 hitters), 16 placementsWSH1,248New York Yankees: 1,186 player-days lost (573 pitchers, 613 hitters), 26 placementsNYY1,186Cincinnati Reds: 1,067 player-days lost (693 pitchers, 374 hitters), 26 placementsCIN1,067Philadelphia Phillies: 808 player-days lost (547 pitchers, 261 hitters), 20 placementsPHI808Pittsburgh Pirates: 780 player-days lost (408 pitchers, 372 hitters), 20 placementsPIT780St. Louis Cardinals: 704 player-days lost (337 pitchers, 367 hitters), 15 placementsSTL704Cleveland Guardians: 360 player-days lost (215 pitchers, 145 hitters), 12 placementsCLE360
ClubDays lostPitchersHittersPlacements
SF2,3741,38998545
CHC2,2621,95031232
LAD2,2531,81044334
DET2,2081,36084833
AZ2,2001,36983129
TOR2,1821,41776535
BOS2,0761,17390338
BAL1,9401,18375733
COL1,9371,50443335
CWS1,8891,10778229
NYM1,8641,20166332
TEX1,7981,13266634
HOU1,7691,18558437
LAA1,72790382434
KC1,7121,34237027
MIL1,6811,17850333
ATL1,6361,26537130
SD1,6301,12550531
TB1,5871,15343435
SEA1,42473169331
MIN1,3881,22416429
ATH1,36470765731
MIA1,3301,06526526
WSH1,2481,14310516
NYY1,18657361326
CIN1,06769337426
PHI80854726120
PIT78040837220
STL70433736715
CLE36021514512
Source: Roster Memo count of MLB transactions

Roster churn, 2026

How hard each club leaned on its depth: players used, and the moves that shuttled them.

SF64545123168
CHC565142172712
ATH55595018239
TOR55534820245
TEX55484117204
WSH55625092716
HOU53554819194
BAL536654183415
LAD52534213216
NYM526858253415
CIN52514315155
MIL51514512210
BOS5148451092
ATL51473738388
KC51534710124
MIN51493913235
LAA51403525225
DET50463815155
AZ49514517202
TB48514215201
COL48524616144
SEA47383218197
CWS47514613206
SD46322811100
NYY4553509137
PHI4551419156
PIT4573658151
CLE45443810110
STL45453614195
MIA4147449104
Source: Roster Memo count of MLB transactions and appearances

From the Archive

Research →
  • The average club used 46.0 players in 2000 and 56.4 in 2025.
  • The most in a full season since 2000: 71, by the Braves in 2025.
  • A club's top five starters threw 56% of its innings in 2000 and 48% in 2025.
  • A club's top nine hitters took 72% of its plate appearances in 2000 and 73% in 2025.

The Ready List

The best-projected Triple-A and Double-A players who aren't on a 40-man roster, by projected wins per full season. Thin samples are regressed hard, so treat these as a place to start looking.

Hitters
PlayerAgeOrgLevelWins per 600 PA
Rainiel Rodriguez20STLAA2.4
Ralphy Velazquez22CLEAAA2.1
Jesús Báez22STLAA2.1
Brandon Compton24MIAAA2.0
Franklin Arias22BOSAA2.0
Devin Taylor23ATHAA1.8
Luke Adams23MILAAA1.8
Rafe Perich25TEXAA1.8
Andrew Fischer23MILAA1.8
Mike Sirota24LADAA1.7
Bryan Rincon23PHIAA1.7
Cam Cannarella24MIAAAA1.7
James Tibbs III25LADAAA1.7
Charlie Condon24COLAAA1.7
Caleb Bonemer22CWSAA1.7
Pitchers
PlayerAgeOrgLevelWins per 150 IP
José Urquidy32Free agentAAA1.6
Joseph Dzierwa23BALAA1.5
Eliazar Dishmey23MIAAA1.5
Isaac Lyon23WSHAA1.5
Ryan Sloan21SEAAA1.4
Darlin Saladin25STLAA1.4
Evan Taylor28CHCAA1.4
Tyson Hardin26MILAAA1.4
Anthony Eyanson23BALAA1.4
Nigel Belgrave25MIAAA1.4
Michael Forret23BALAAA1.4
Luis Vargas25ATLAA1.3
Kolby Allard30PHIAAA1.3
Jonathan Santucci25NYMAA1.3
Yaqui Rivera24BALAAA1.3

Best Fits on the Market

Upgrade Board →
PlayerBest fitSpotWins gainedMarket est.
Tarik SkubalWashington NationalsRotation+3.9$46.6M
Seiya SuzukiCincinnati RedsRight field+2.9$28.9M
Brandon LoweLos Angeles AngelsSecond base+2.8$34.8M
Trent GrishamSt. Louis CardinalsCenter field+2.5$34.2M
Ian HappSeattle MarinersLeft field+2.4$20.6M
Ryan JeffersCincinnati RedsCatcher+2.4$41.5M

One row per player, at the club where he'd add the most. Availability is inferred from transactions.

Latest Writing

Archive →

The first memos are in draft.