Strength · New York Mets
The New York Mets left field projects 3.5 wins above the average club's, among the widest gaps at any position in baseball.
- Projected wins
- 4.7
- vs. league
- +3.5
- Leading the job
- Juan Soto
National League East
New York Mets
74-88 in 2026, 5th in the division, -32 run differential. Home: Citi Field.
The roster as it stands on 2026-11-05, projected for 2027. Preliminary: free agents are off rosters and offseason moves are still to come.
What Stands Out
Data Desk →Change · New York Mets
The New York Mets went 74-88 in 2026. The model projects 85 wins for 2027, an 11-win rise.
- 2026 record
- 74-88
- Run differential
- -32
- 2027 expected
- 84.8
- Change
- +10.8
Projections pull every club toward the middle, and the 2027 roster doesn't yet include free agents, trades or players returning from injury.
- Expected wins
- 84.8
- 80% range
- 75–95
- Rank
- 4 of 30
- Lost to injury
- 2.6
- Depth value
- 4.3
- Left on table
- 0.5
- Surplus
- $161M
- Value priced
- 90%
- Committed to 2027
- $222.3M
- IL days, 2026
- 1,864 (11th-most)
- IL placements, 2026
- 32
- Players used, 2026
- 52 (9th-most)
- Options, 2026
- 68
- Waiver claims, 2026
- 15
Where the numbers go quiet: Bullpen. The regulars here have too little MLB history for public stats to say much.
The Long View
Wins by season
The line is this club; the shaded band runs from baseball's fewest wins to its most. 2020 was a 60-game season.
Players used by season
Players who appeared for the club; the band is the league's range.
Player-days on the injured list
Counted from transactions; the band is the league's range. The 10-day list began in 2017.
Next Up
| Player | Age | Level | Role | Proj. wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simon | 25 | AAA | Pitcher | 1.3 |
| Jonathan Santucci | 25 | AA | Pitcher | 1.3 |
| Brian Metoyer | 31 | AA | Pitcher | 1.3 |
| Émilien Pitre | 25 | AA | Hitter | 1.2 |
| Marco Vargas | 22 | AA | Hitter | 1.2 |
| Corey Collins | 26 | AA | Hitter | 1.2 |
| Gary Gill Hill | 23 | AA | Pitcher | 1.1 |
| Felipe De La Cruz | 26 | AA | Pitcher | 1.1 |
Best-projected Triple-A and Double-A players in the organization who aren't on the 40-man, in wins per 600 PA or 150 IP. Thin samples are regressed hard.
Where the Money Goes
| 2027 cost tier | Players | Committed |
|---|---|---|
| Contracts | 6 | $177.8M |
| Arbitration (est.) | 7 | $30.4M |
| Near the minimum | 18 | $14.0M |
| Not yet priced | 9 | – |
Luxury-tax values where we have a sourced contract; arbitration figures are our estimates.
Biggest Weak Spots
Upgrade Board →| Spot | vs. league | Free agent option | Wins gained | Market est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Designated hitter | -1.0 | Seiya Suzuki | +2.1 | $16.6M |
| Marcell Ozuna | +1.9 | $14.3M | ||
| Jake Bauers | +1.8 | $12.7M | ||
| First base | -0.8 | Jake Bauers | +1.0 | $18.8M |
| Ty France | +0.4 | $11.0M | ||
| Rotation | -0.5 | Tarik Skubal | +3.0 | $46.6M |
| Trevor Rogers | +1.5 | $27.9M | ||
| Sonny Gray | +1.5 | $28.6M |
Already on the roster: Francisco Alvarez over Jorge Polanco (DH). Projected at least a win better at the plate; defense isn't weighed.
Options are inferred from recent transactions, so some may have signed elsewhere. Wins gained are cut to 90%, a factor tested on bench players and assumed here. Market estimates price projected wins at $10.8M each, not what a player would actually sign for.
The Depth Chart
Catcher3.3 wins, +0.3 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Torrens | 31 | 68% | 2.0 | $5.8M |
| Francisco Alvarez | 26 | 31% | 1.2 | ~$5.7M est. |
| Hayden Senger ° | 30 | 1% | 0.0 | about minimum |
First base0.6 wins, -0.8 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Young | 32 | 84% | 0.5 | not entered |
| Mark Vientos | 28 | 15% | 0.1 | ~$780K est. |
Second base1.8 wins, -0.1 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Semien | 37 | 82% | 1.3 | $25.0M |
| Brett Baty | 28 | 17% | 0.4 | ~$4.9M est. |
Third base2.6 wins, +0.5 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette | 29 | 72% | 2.0 | $42.0M |
| Brett Baty | 28 | 24% | 0.6 | ~$4.9M est. |
| Mark Vientos | 28 | 4% | 0.1 | ~$780K est. |
Shortstop4.3 wins, +1.4 vs. league
Left field4.7 wins, +3.5 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 29 | 84% | 4.7 | $51.0M |
| Christopher Morel | 28 | 15% | 0.0 | not entered |
Center field3.0 wins, +0.6 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Ewing | 23 | 85% | 2.5 | about minimum |
| Carson Benge | 24 | 15% | 0.5 | about minimum |
Right field2.1 wins, +0.7 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Benge | 24 | 77% | 1.6 | about minimum |
| Juan Soto | 29 | 6% | 0.3 | $51.0M |
| Brett Baty | 28 | 12% | 0.2 | ~$4.9M est. |
Designated hitter-0.6 wins, -1.0 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Alvarez | 26 | 20% | 0.1 | ~$5.7M est. |
| Mark Vientos | 28 | 3% | 0.0 | ~$780K est. |
| Jorge Polanco | 34 | 77% | -0.6 | $20.0M |
Rotation6.9 wins, -0.5 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | 26 | 81% | 1.9 | about minimum |
| Christian Scott | 28 | 81% | 1.7 | about minimum |
| Jonah Tong ° | 24 | 87% | 1.4 | about minimum |
| Sean Manaea | 35 | 81% | 1.0 | in review |
| Zac Thornton | 25 | 88% | 0.8 | about minimum |
Bullpen8.5 wins, +0.0 vs. league °
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Williams | 33 | 85% | 2.2 | in review |
| Reed Garrett | 34 | 86% | 1.4 | ~$9.3M est. |
| Tylor Megill | 32 | 84% | 1.2 | ~$7.6M est. |
| Nate Lavender ° | 27 | 88% | 1.0 | about minimum |
| Dedniel Núñez ° | 31 | 85% | 0.7 | about minimum |
| Tobias Myers | 29 | 87% | 0.6 | about minimum |
| Jack Weisenburger ° | 30 | 84% | 0.5 | about minimum |
| Pierson Ohl ° | 28 | 88% | 0.4 | about minimum |
| Daniel Duarte ° | 31 | 66% | 0.3 | ~$1.3M est. |
| Cionel Pérez | 31 | 31% | 0.1 | not entered |
| Jefry Yan ° | 31 | 10% | 0.0 | about minimum |
| Robert Stock ° | 38 | 2% | 0.0 | not entered |
Share is of the job at that spot; a rotation or bullpen lists several jobs, so shares can add to more than 100%. A linked cost is a luxury-tax value from public reporting. How to read this.
The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at "www.retrosheet.org". Player ID links come from the Chadwick Baseball Bureau register (Open Data Commons Attribution License). Rosters, transactions, minor league and 2026 statistics, and defensive measures come from MLB sources. We publish only our own derived results. Methods are on the Model page.