National League Central

Cincinnati Reds

75-87 in 2026, 5th in the division, -160 run differential. Home: Great American Ball Park.

The roster as it stands on 2026-11-05, projected for 2027. Preliminary: free agents are off rosters and offseason moves are still to come.

What Stands Out

Data Desk →

Decision · Cincinnati Reds

Seiya Suzuki would add about 2.9 projected wins in right field for the Cincinnati Reds, one of the biggest fits on the market.

Wins gained: +2.9
Market estimate: $29M
Spot vs. league: -1.8

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Expected wins: 75.4
80% range: 65–85
Rank: 27 of 30
Lost to injury: 1.8
Depth value: 2.9
Left on table: 0.0
Surplus: $227M
Value priced: 90%

Committed to 2027: $67.1M
IL days, 2026: 1,067 (26th-most)
IL placements, 2026: 26
Players used, 2026: 52 (9th-most)
Options, 2026: 51
Waiver claims, 2026: 5

Where the numbers go quiet: Bullpen. The regulars here have too little MLB history for public stats to say much.

The Long View

Wins by season

The line is this club; the shaded band runs from baseball's fewest wins to its most. 2020 was a 60-game season.

Source: Roster Memo count of Retrosheet data and MLB standings

Players used by season

Players who appeared for the club; the band is the league's range.

Source: Roster Memo count of Retrosheet data

Player-days on the injured list

Counted from transactions; the band is the league's range. The 10-day list began in 2017.

Source: Roster Memo count of MLB transactions

Next Up

Player	Age	Level	Role	Proj. wins
Carter Graham	26	AA	Hitter	1.3
Trevor Kuncl	28	AAA	Pitcher	1.2
Will Cannon	24	AA	Pitcher	1.1
Cody Adcock	25	AA	Pitcher	1.1
Yerlin Confidan	25	AA	Hitter	1.0
Bryce Hubbart	26	AA	Pitcher	1.0
Jose Montero	24	AA	Pitcher	1.0
Sam Benschoter	29	AAA	Pitcher	1.0

Best-projected Triple-A and Double-A players in the organization who aren't on the 40-man, in wins per 600 PA or 150 IP. Thin samples are regressed hard.

Where the Money Goes

2027 cost tier	Players	Committed
Contracts	2	$17.6M
Arbitration (est.)	13	$34.7M
Near the minimum	19	$14.8M
Not yet priced	3	–

Luxury-tax values where we have a sourced contract; arbitration figures are our estimates.

Biggest Weak Spots

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Spot	vs. league	Free agent option	Wins gained	Market est.
Bullpen	-2.1	Adrian Morejon	+1.7	$22.6M
		David Bednar	+1.3	$18.1M
		Kris Bubic	+1.2	$16.7M
Catcher	-1.8	Ryan Jeffers	+2.4	$41.5M
		Gary Sánchez	+2.0	$37.6M
		Carson Kelly	+1.9	$36.2M
Right field	-1.8	Seiya Suzuki	+2.9	$28.9M
		Jake Bauers	+2.5	$24.9M
		Michael Conforto	+1.5	$12.6M

Options are inferred from recent transactions, so some may have signed elsewhere. Wins gained are cut to 90%, a factor tested on bench players and assumed here. Market estimates price projected wins at $10.8M each, not what a player would actually sign for.

The Depth Chart

Catcher1.1 wins, -1.8 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Jose Trevino	35	67%	0.8	in review
Will Banfield	28	32%	0.3	about minimum

First base1.7 wins, +0.4 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Sal Stewart	24	75%	1.6	about minimum
Spencer Steer	30	20%	0.1	~$2.0M est.

Second base1.4 wins, -0.4 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Matt McLain	28	75%	0.9	~$2.6M est.
Edwin Arroyo	24	24%	0.4	about minimum
Juan Brito	26	1%	0.0	about minimum

Third base1.5 wins, -0.7 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Ke'Bryan Hayes	30	84%	0.9	$8.8M
Sal Stewart	24	16%	0.6	about minimum

Shortstop4.7 wins, +1.8 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Elly De La Cruz	25	85%	4.4	~$9.8M est.
Matt McLain	28	14%	0.3	~$2.6M est.

Left field1.3 wins, +0.1 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
JJ Bleday	30	73%	1.0	not entered
Spencer Steer	30	26%	0.3	~$2.0M est.
Blake Dunn	29	1%	0.0	about minimum

Center field1.7 wins, -0.6 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Dane Myers	31	84%	1.3	~$2.8M est.
JJ Bleday	30	16%	0.4	not entered

Right field-0.4 wins, -1.8 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Héctor Rodríguez	23	16%	0.0	about minimum
Noelvi Marte	26	84%	-0.4	~$780K est.

Designated hitter0.1 wins, -0.3 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Elly De La Cruz	25	6%	0.1	~$9.8M est.
Spencer Steer	30	42%	0.0	~$2.0M est.
Dane Myers	31	5%	0.0	~$2.8M est.

Rotation8.2 wins, +0.7 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Chase Burns	24	88%	3.1	about minimum
Hunter Greene	28	81%	2.1	$8.8M
Rhett Lowder	25	88%	1.0	about minimum
Andrew Abbott	28	81%	0.9	~$1.9M est.
Nick Lodolo	29	81%	0.8	~$3.3M est.
Brandon Williamson °	29	56%	0.2	~$780K est.

Bullpen6.3 wins, -2.1 vs. league °

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Graham Ashcraft	29	88%	1.7	~$7.4M est.
Luis Mey °	26	88%	1.1	about minimum
Paxton Schultz °	29	87%	0.9	about minimum
Tejay Antone °	34	85%	0.7	not entered
Zach Maxwell °	26	88%	0.6	about minimum
Zach McCambley °	28	87%	0.5	about minimum
Julian Garcia °	32	84%	0.4	about minimum
Chase Solesky °	30	85%	0.3	about minimum
Jose Franco °	27	66%	0.2	about minimum
Connor Phillips °	26	28%	0.1	~$780K est.
Duncan Davitt °	28	8%	0.0	about minimum
Tony Santillan	30	2%	0.0	~$780K est.

Share is of the job at that spot; a rotation or bullpen lists several jobs, so shares can add to more than 100%. A linked cost is a luxury-tax value from public reporting. How to read this.

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at "www.retrosheet.org". Player ID links come from the Chadwick Baseball Bureau register (Open Data Commons Attribution License). Rosters, transactions, minor league and 2026 statistics, and defensive measures come from MLB sources. We publish only our own derived results. Methods are on the Model page.