Weak spot · Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies rotation projects 5.7 wins below the average club's, among the widest gaps at any position in baseball.
- Projected wins
- 1.8
- vs. league
- -5.7
- Leading the job
- Mason Adams
The Data Desk
What's unusual in the numbers right now. Each data refresh, the Story Finder scans every club for results that stand out from the rest of baseball and lists them, strangest first. These are facts, not verdicts: each one links to a desk report written automatically from the data. The author's own take, The Read, appears when there's something to say. Rosters as of 2026-11-05.
The Leads
Strength · Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers rotation projects 4.7 wins above the average club's, among the widest gaps at any position in baseball.
- Projected wins
- 12.1
- vs. league
- +4.7
- Leading the job
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Weak spot · San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres rotation projects 4.5 wins below the average club's, among the widest gaps at any position in baseball.
- Projected wins
- 3.0
- vs. league
- -4.5
- Leading the job
- Joe Musgrove
Strength · New York Yankees
The New York Yankees right field projects 3.8 wins above the average club's, among the widest gaps at any position in baseball.
- Projected wins
- 5.2
- vs. league
- +3.8
- Leading the job
- Aaron Judge
Weak spot · Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs rotation projects 3.7 wins below the average club's, among the widest gaps at any position in baseball.
- Projected wins
- 3.8
- vs. league
- -3.7
- Leading the job
- Ben Brown
Strength · New York Mets
The New York Mets left field projects 3.5 wins above the average club's, among the widest gaps at any position in baseball.
- Projected wins
- 4.7
- vs. league
- +3.5
- Leading the job
- Juan Soto
Decision · Washington Nationals
Tarik Skubal would add about 3.9 projected wins in the rotation for the Washington Nationals, one of the biggest fits on the market.
- Wins gained
- +3.9
- Market estimate
- $47M
- Spot vs. league
- -1.1
Paradox · Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers project 3rd in wins with the 26th-largest 2027 commitment, one of the best returns on money in baseball.
- Expected wins
- 85.3
- Win rank
- 3rd
- Committed
- $86M
- Payroll rank
- 26th
Pattern · San Francisco Giants
Clubs that lost more time to injury used more players in 2026 (correlation 0.58). The San Francisco Giants used 10 more than their injuries alone would predict.
- Players used
- 64
- Expected from injuries
- 54
- Options
- 54
- Waiver claims
- 8
Injuries · Cleveland Guardians
The Cleveland Guardians lost 360 player-days to the injured list in 2026, the fewest in baseball.
- Player-days lost
- 360
- Placements
- 12
- Pitcher days
- 215
- Players used
- 45
Change · Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays went 98-64 in 2026. The model projects 76 wins for 2027, a 22-win drop.
- 2026 record
- 98-64
- Run differential
- +86
- 2027 expected
- 76.2
- Change
- -21.8
Projections pull every club toward the middle, and the 2027 roster doesn't yet include free agents, trades or players returning from injury.
Pattern · Miami Marlins
Clubs that lost more time to injury used more players in 2026 (correlation 0.58). The Miami Marlins used 8 fewer than their injuries alone would predict.
- Players used
- 41
- Expected from injuries
- 49
- Options
- 47
- Waiver claims
- 4
Change · Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers went 103-59 in 2026. The model projects 85 wins for 2027, an 18-win drop.
- 2026 record
- 103-59
- Run differential
- +214
- 2027 expected
- 85.3
- Change
- -17.7
Projections pull every club toward the middle, and the 2027 roster doesn't yet include free agents, trades or players returning from injury.
Change · Athletics
The Athletics went 64-98 in 2026. The model projects 80 wins for 2027, a 16-win rise.
- 2026 record
- 64-98
- Run differential
- -238
- 2027 expected
- 79.7
- Change
- +15.7
Projections pull every club toward the middle, and the 2027 roster doesn't yet include free agents, trades or players returning from injury.
Injuries · St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals lost 704 player-days to the injured list in 2026, the 2nd-fewest.
- Player-days lost
- 704
- Placements
- 15
- Pitcher days
- 337
- Players used
- 45
Pattern · Washington Nationals
Clubs that lost more time to injury used more players in 2026 (correlation 0.58). The Washington Nationals used 7 more than their injuries alone would predict.
- Players used
- 55
- Expected from injuries
- 48
- Options
- 62
- Waiver claims
- 16
Paradox · Cleveland Guardians
The Cleveland Guardians project 13th in wins with the 28th-largest 2027 commitment, one of the best returns on money in baseball.
- Expected wins
- 80.4
- Win rank
- 13th
- Committed
- $68M
- Payroll rank
- 28th
Paradox · Houston Astros
The Houston Astros project 20th in wins with the 5th-largest 2027 commitment.
- Expected wins
- 78.6
- Win rank
- 20th
- Committed
- $196M
- Payroll rank
- 5th
Change · San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants went 65-97 in 2026. The model projects 80 wins for 2027, a 15-win rise.
- 2026 record
- 65-97
- Run differential
- -91
- 2027 expected
- 79.8
- Change
- +14.8
Projections pull every club toward the middle, and the 2027 roster doesn't yet include free agents, trades or players returning from injury.
Injuries · Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 780 player-days to the injured list in 2026, the 3rd-fewest.
- Player-days lost
- 780
- Placements
- 20
- Pitcher days
- 408
- Players used
- 45
Pattern · Athletics
Clubs that lost more time to injury used more players in 2026 (correlation 0.58). The Athletics used 6 more than their injuries alone would predict.
- Players used
- 55
- Expected from injuries
- 49
- Options
- 59
- Waiver claims
- 9
Injuries · Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies lost 808 player-days to the injured list in 2026, the 4th-fewest.
- Player-days lost
- 808
- Placements
- 20
- Pitcher days
- 547
- Players used
- 45
Decision · Cincinnati Reds
Seiya Suzuki would add about 2.9 projected wins in right field for the Cincinnati Reds, one of the biggest fits on the market.
- Wins gained
- +2.9
- Market estimate
- $29M
- Spot vs. league
- -1.8
Injuries · San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants lost 2,374 player-days to the injured list in 2026, the most in baseball.
- Player-days lost
- 2,374
- Placements
- 45
- Pitcher days
- 1,389
- Players used
- 64
Decision · Los Angeles Angels
Brandon Lowe would add about 2.8 projected wins at second base for the Los Angeles Angels, one of the biggest fits on the market.
- Wins gained
- +2.8
- Market estimate
- $35M
- Spot vs. league
- -1.3
Change · Kansas City Royals
The Kansas City Royals went 69-93 in 2026. The model projects 81 wins for 2027, a 12-win rise.
- 2026 record
- 69-93
- Run differential
- -120
- 2027 expected
- 80.8
- Change
- +11.8
Projections pull every club toward the middle, and the 2027 roster doesn't yet include free agents, trades or players returning from injury.
Change · Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies went 58-104 in 2026. The model projects 70 wins for 2027, a 12-win rise.
- 2026 record
- 58-104
- Run differential
- -192
- 2027 expected
- 69.7
- Change
- +11.7
Projections pull every club toward the middle, and the 2027 roster doesn't yet include free agents, trades or players returning from injury.
Change · Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs went 89-73 in 2026. The model projects 76 wins for 2027, a 13-win drop.
- 2026 record
- 89-73
- Run differential
- +147
- 2027 expected
- 76.2
- Change
- -12.8
Projections pull every club toward the middle, and the 2027 roster doesn't yet include free agents, trades or players returning from injury.
Paradox · Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers project 17th in wins with the 6th-largest 2027 commitment.
- Expected wins
- 79.5
- Win rank
- 17th
- Committed
- $168M
- Payroll rank
- 6th
Paradox · San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres project 19th in wins with the 8th-largest 2027 commitment.
- Expected wins
- 78.9
- Win rank
- 19th
- Committed
- $155M
- Payroll rank
- 8th
Change · New York Mets
The New York Mets went 74-88 in 2026. The model projects 85 wins for 2027, an 11-win rise.
- 2026 record
- 74-88
- Run differential
- -32
- 2027 expected
- 84.8
- Change
- +10.8
Projections pull every club toward the middle, and the 2027 roster doesn't yet include free agents, trades or players returning from injury.
Decision · St. Louis Cardinals
Trent Grisham would add about 2.5 projected wins in center field for the St. Louis Cardinals, one of the biggest fits on the market.
- Wins gained
- +2.5
- Market estimate
- $34M
- Spot vs. league
- -1.9
No leads match those filters.