National League Central

Milwaukee Brewers

103-59 in 2026, won the division, +214 run differential. Home: American Family Field.

The roster as it stands on 2026-11-05, projected for 2027. Preliminary: free agents are off rosters and offseason moves are still to come.

What Stands Out

Data Desk →

Paradox · Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers project 3rd in wins with the 26th-largest 2027 commitment, one of the best returns on money in baseball.

Expected wins: 85.3
Win rank: 3rd
Committed: $86M
Payroll rank: 26th

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Change · Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers went 103-59 in 2026. The model projects 85 wins for 2027, an 18-win drop.

2026 record: 103-59
Run differential: +214
2027 expected: 85.3
Change: -17.7

Projections pull every club toward the middle, and the 2027 roster doesn't yet include free agents, trades or players returning from injury.

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Expected wins: 85.3
80% range: 75–96
Rank: 3 of 30
Lost to injury: 3.4
Depth value: 2.8
Left on table: 0.0
Surplus: $311M
Value priced: 92%

Committed to 2027: $86.0M
IL days, 2026: 1,681 (16th-most)
IL placements, 2026: 33
Players used, 2026: 51 (12th-most)
Options, 2026: 51
Waiver claims, 2026: 0

The Long View

Wins by season

The line is this club; the shaded band runs from baseball's fewest wins to its most. 2020 was a 60-game season.

Source: Roster Memo count of Retrosheet data and MLB standings

Players used by season

Players who appeared for the club; the band is the league's range.

Source: Roster Memo count of Retrosheet data

Player-days on the injured list

Counted from transactions; the band is the league's range. The 10-day list began in 2017.

Source: Roster Memo count of MLB transactions

Next Up

Player	Age	Level	Role	Proj. wins
Luke Adams	23	AAA	Hitter	1.8
Andrew Fischer	23	AA	Hitter	1.8
Josh Adamczewski	22	AA	Hitter	1.5
Blake Burke	24	AA	Hitter	1.5
Cameron Wagoner	26	AA	Pitcher	1.4
Tyson Hardin	26	AAA	Pitcher	1.4
Blake Holub	29	AAA	Pitcher	1.4
Sam Garcia	25	AA	Pitcher	1.4

Best-projected Triple-A and Double-A players in the organization who aren't on the 40-man, in wins per 600 PA or 150 IP. Thin samples are regressed hard.

Where the Money Goes

2027 cost tier	Players	Committed
Contracts	1	$4.1M
Arbitration (est.)	14	$69.4M
Near the minimum	16	$12.5M
Not yet priced	2	–

Luxury-tax values where we have a sourced contract; arbitration figures are our estimates.

Biggest Weak Spots

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Spot	vs. league	Free agent option	Wins gained	Market est.
Third base	-1.5	Alec Bohm	+2.2	$27.1M
		Edmundo Sosa	+1.9	$23.0M
		Eugenio Suárez	+1.8	$22.6M
Right field	-0.8	Seiya Suzuki	+1.9	$28.9M
		Jake Bauers	+1.6	$24.9M
		Michael Conforto	+0.5	$12.6M
First base	-0.8	Jake Bauers	+0.8	$18.8M

Options are inferred from recent transactions, so some may have signed elsewhere. Wins gained are cut to 90%, a factor tested on bench players and assumed here. Market estimates price projected wins at $10.8M each, not what a player would actually sign for.

The Depth Chart

Catcher3.6 wins, +0.7 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
William Contreras	30	68%	2.9	not entered
Bo Naylor	27	31%	0.7	~$2.9M est.
Jeferson Quero °	25	1%	0.0	about minimum

First base0.6 wins, -0.8 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Andrew Vaughn	29	66%	0.6	~$7.0M est.

Second base3.1 wins, +1.3 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Brice Turang	28	84%	3.1	~$6.6M est.
David Hamilton	30	16%	0.0	~$780K est.

Third base0.7 wins, -1.5 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Andrew Vaughn	29	21%	0.5	~$7.0M est.
Joey Ortiz	29	6%	0.1	~$4.9M est.
David Hamilton	30	73%	0.0	~$780K est.

Shortstop2.4 wins, -0.4 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Joey Ortiz	29	84%	2.2	~$4.9M est.
Cooper Pratt	23	15%	0.3	about minimum

Left field2.1 wins, +0.9 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Jackson Chourio	23	75%	2.1	about minimum
Christian Yelich	36	1%	0.0	in review
Brandon Lockridge °	30	23%	0.0	about minimum

Center field3.6 wins, +1.3 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Garrett Mitchell	29	83%	3.0	~$12.9M est.
Jackson Chourio	23	16%	0.6	about minimum

Right field0.6 wins, -0.8 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Sal Frelick	27	83%	0.5	~$1.0M est.
Luis Lara	23	16%	0.1	about minimum

Designated hitter0.1 wins, -0.4 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
William Contreras	30	14%	0.1	not entered
Christian Yelich	36	76%	0.1	in review
Tyler Black	27	9%	-0.2	about minimum

Rotation10.7 wins, +3.2 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Jacob Misiorowski	25	87%	3.6	about minimum
Logan Henderson	25	87%	2.3	about minimum
Shane Drohan	28	81%	1.9	about minimum
Quinn Priester	27	81%	1.5	~$3.2M est.
Robert Gasser	28	81%	1.3	about minimum

Bullpen10.3 wins, +1.8 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Trevor Megill	34	86%	2.5	~$16.3M est.
Abner Uribe	27	88%	2.1	~$4.5M est.
Aaron Ashby	29	87%	1.8	$4.1M
Kyle Harrison	26	88%	1.0	~$2.2M est.
Angel Zerpa	28	88%	0.7	~$4.8M est.
Brian Fitzpatrick °	27	87%	0.6	about minimum
Chad Patrick	29	88%	0.6	about minimum
Garrett Stallings °	30	84%	0.5	about minimum
DL Hall	29	65%	0.3	~$1.4M est.
Coleman Crow °	27	27%	0.1	about minimum
Grant Anderson	30	6%	0.0	~$780K est.
Brandon Sproat	27	1%	0.0	about minimum

Share is of the job at that spot; a rotation or bullpen lists several jobs, so shares can add to more than 100%. A linked cost is a luxury-tax value from public reporting. How to read this.

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at "www.retrosheet.org". Player ID links come from the Chadwick Baseball Bureau register (Open Data Commons Attribution License). Rosters, transactions, minor league and 2026 statistics, and defensive measures come from MLB sources. We publish only our own derived results. Methods are on the Model page.