American League East

Boston Red Sox

87-75 in 2026, 3rd, wild card, +78 run differential. Home: Fenway Park.

The roster as it stands on 2026-11-05, projected for 2027. Preliminary: free agents are off rosters and offseason moves are still to come.

Expected wins: 84.5
80% range: 75–95
Rank: 5 of 30
Lost to injury: 3.5
Depth value: 2.9
Left on table: 1.2
Surplus: $232M
Value priced: 88%

Committed to 2027: $147.2M
IL days, 2026: 2,076 (7th-most)
IL placements, 2026: 38
Players used, 2026: 51 (12th-most)
Options, 2026: 48
Waiver claims, 2026: 2

The Long View

Wins by season

The line is this club; the shaded band runs from baseball's fewest wins to its most. 2020 was a 60-game season.

Source: Roster Memo count of Retrosheet data and MLB standings

Players used by season

Players who appeared for the club; the band is the league's range.

Source: Roster Memo count of Retrosheet data

Player-days on the injured list

Counted from transactions; the band is the league's range. The 10-day list began in 2017.

Source: Roster Memo count of MLB transactions

Next Up

Player	Age	Level	Role	Proj. wins
Franklin Arias	22	AA	Hitter	2.0
Johanfran Garcia	23	AA	Hitter	1.4
Brooks Brannon	23	AA	Hitter	1.4
Angel Bastardo	25	AAA	Pitcher	1.3
Jack Winnay	24	AA	Hitter	1.2
Cade Feeney	26	AA	Pitcher	1.2
Joe Vogatsky	26	AA	Pitcher	1.1
Max Carlson	26	AA	Pitcher	1.1

Best-projected Triple-A and Double-A players in the organization who aren't on the 40-man, in wins per 600 PA or 150 IP. Thin samples are regressed hard.

Where the Money Goes

2027 cost tier	Players	Committed
Contracts	4	$78.1M
Arbitration (est.)	15	$57.4M
Near the minimum	15	$11.7M
Not yet priced	6	–

Luxury-tax values where we have a sourced contract; arbitration figures are our estimates.

Biggest Weak Spots

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Spot	vs. league	Free agent option	Wins gained	Market est.
Shortstop	-1.8	Miguel Rojas	+1.2	$25.7M
		Mauricio Dubón	+1.1	$24.7M
		J.P. Crawford	+1.0	$23.7M
Second base	-0.5	Brandon Lowe	+1.8	$34.8M
		Jazz Chisholm Jr.	+1.6	$33.0M
		Gleyber Torres	+1.3	$29.5M
Designated hitter	-0.3	Seiya Suzuki	+1.1	$16.6M
		Marcell Ozuna	+0.9	$14.3M
		Jake Bauers	+0.8	$12.7M

Already on the roster: Roman Anthony over Jarren Duran (LF). Projected at least a win better at the plate; defense isn't weighed.

Options are inferred from recent transactions, so some may have signed elsewhere. Wins gained are cut to 90%, a factor tested on bench players and assumed here. Market estimates price projected wins at $10.8M each, not what a player would actually sign for.

The Depth Chart

Catcher3.1 wins, +0.2 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Adley Rutschman	29	68%	2.6	~$11.3M est.
Connor Wong	31	32%	0.5	~$3.0M est.

First base2.2 wins, +0.9 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Willson Contreras	35	82%	2.1	$17.5M
Curtis Mead	27	16%	0.1	~$930K est.
Romy Gonzalez	31	2%	0.0	~$780K est.

Second base1.3 wins, -0.5 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Anthony Seigler	28	84%	1.1	about minimum
Nick Sogard	30	16%	0.2	about minimum

Third base2.0 wins, -0.2 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Caleb Durbin	27	84%	1.6	about minimum
Curtis Mead	27	16%	0.3	~$930K est.

Shortstop1.1 wins, -1.8 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Trevor Story	35	82%	0.9	in review
Andruw Monasterio	30	17%	0.2	~$780K est.

Left field1.2 wins, +0.0 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Jarren Duran	31	73%	1.1	~$9.7M est.
Eli White	33	26%	0.1	~$930K est.
Roman Anthony	23	1%	0.0	about minimum

Center field2.5 wins, +0.1 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Ceddanne Rafaela	27	83%	2.1	$6.3M
Jarren Duran	31	16%	0.4	~$9.7M est.

Right field2.2 wins, +0.8 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Wilyer Abreu	28	84%	2.1	~$4.5M est.
Roman Anthony	23	3%	0.1	about minimum
Eli White	33	14%	0.0	~$930K est.

Designated hitter0.2 wins, -0.3 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Jahmai Jones	30	78%	0.2	not entered
Masataka Yoshida	34	21%	0.0	not entered

Rotation10.3 wins, +2.8 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Payton Tolle	25	87%	3.0	about minimum
Garrett Crochet	28	80%	2.9	$28.3M
Ranger Suarez	32	77%	2.5	$26.0M
Jake Bennett	27	81%	2.0	about minimum

Bullpen10.7 wins, +2.3 vs. league

Player	Age	Share	Wins	Cost
Garrett Whitlock	31	84%	2.6	~$16.9M est.
Aroldis Chapman	39	86%	2.3	in review
Justin Slaten	30	84%	1.5	about minimum
Erik Miller	29	88%	1.2	about minimum
Tyron Guerrero °	36	85%	0.9	not entered
Greg Weissert	32	83%	0.7	~$3.1M est.
Alec Gamboa °	30	84%	0.5	about minimum
Brayan Bello	28	88%	0.5	~$2.0M est.
Tyler Samaniego °	28	70%	0.4	about minimum
Jovani Morán °	30	31%	0.2	~$1.0M est.
Raymond Burgos °	29	10%	0.0	about minimum
Jedixson Paez °	23	2%	0.0	about minimum

Share is of the job at that spot; a rotation or bullpen lists several jobs, so shares can add to more than 100%. A linked cost is a luxury-tax value from public reporting. How to read this.

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at "www.retrosheet.org". Player ID links come from the Chadwick Baseball Bureau register (Open Data Commons Attribution License). Rosters, transactions, minor league and 2026 statistics, and defensive measures come from MLB sources. We publish only our own derived results. Methods are on the Model page.