Weak spot · Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs rotation projects 3.7 wins below the average club's, among the widest gaps at any position in baseball.
- Projected wins
- 3.8
- vs. league
- -3.7
- Leading the job
- Ben Brown
National League Central
Chicago Cubs
89-73 in 2026, 2nd, wild card, +147 run differential. Home: Wrigley Field.
The roster as it stands on 2026-11-05, projected for 2027. Preliminary: free agents are off rosters and offseason moves are still to come.
What Stands Out
Data Desk →Change · Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs went 89-73 in 2026. The model projects 76 wins for 2027, a 13-win drop.
- 2026 record
- 89-73
- Run differential
- +147
- 2027 expected
- 76.2
- Change
- -12.8
Projections pull every club toward the middle, and the 2027 roster doesn't yet include free agents, trades or players returning from injury.
- Expected wins
- 76.2
- 80% range
- 66–86
- Rank
- 24 of 30
- Lost to injury
- 2.3
- Depth value
- 1.4
- Left on table
- 0.0
- Surplus
- $179M
- Value priced
- 80%
- Committed to 2027
- $89.5M
- IL days, 2026
- 2,262 (2nd-most)
- IL placements, 2026
- 32
- Players used, 2026
- 56 (2nd-most)
- Options, 2026
- 51
- Waiver claims, 2026
- 12
The Long View
Wins by season
The line is this club; the shaded band runs from baseball's fewest wins to its most. 2020 was a 60-game season.
Players used by season
Players who appeared for the club; the band is the league's range.
Player-days on the injured list
Counted from transactions; the band is the league's range. The 10-day list began in 2017.
Next Up
| Player | Age | Level | Role | Proj. wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Taylor | 28 | AA | Pitcher | 1.4 |
| Nick Dean | 27 | AA | Pitcher | 1.4 |
| Owen Ayers | 26 | AA | Hitter | 1.3 |
| Marino Santy | 25 | AA | Pitcher | 1.3 |
| Jaxon Wiggins | 26 | AAA | Pitcher | 1.3 |
| Tyler Ras | 28 | AA | Pitcher | 1.3 |
| Miguel Useche | 26 | AA | Hitter | 1.2 |
| Brooks Caple | 25 | AA | Pitcher | 1.2 |
Best-projected Triple-A and Double-A players in the organization who aren't on the 40-man, in wins per 600 PA or 150 IP. Thin samples are regressed hard.
Where the Money Goes
| 2027 cost tier | Players | Committed |
|---|---|---|
| Contracts | 4 | $53.0M |
| Arbitration (est.) | 10 | $24.1M |
| Near the minimum | 16 | $12.5M |
| Not yet priced | 4 | – |
Luxury-tax values where we have a sourced contract; arbitration figures are our estimates.
Biggest Weak Spots
Upgrade Board →| Spot | vs. league | Free agent option | Wins gained | Market est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotation | -3.7 | Tarik Skubal | +2.1 | $46.6M |
| Trevor Rogers | +0.6 | $27.9M | ||
| Sonny Gray | +0.6 | $28.6M | ||
| Catcher | -1.3 | Ryan Jeffers | +1.3 | $41.5M |
| Gary Sánchez | +1.0 | $37.6M | ||
| Carson Kelly | +0.9 | $36.2M | ||
| Right field | -1.2 | Seiya Suzuki | +1.6 | $28.9M |
| Jake Bauers | +1.2 | $24.9M |
Options are inferred from recent transactions, so some may have signed elsewhere. Wins gained are cut to 90%, a factor tested on bench players and assumed here. Market estimates price projected wins at $10.8M each, not what a player would actually sign for.
The Depth Chart
Catcher1.6 wins, -1.3 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Amaya | 28 | 68% | 1.6 | ~$3.1M est. |
First base1.6 wins, +0.3 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Busch | 30 | 84% | 1.7 | ~$3.6M est. |
| Pedro Ramírez | 23 | 15% | 0.0 | about minimum |
Second base2.7 wins, +0.9 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner | 30 | 84% | 2.5 | in review |
| Pedro Ramírez | 23 | 16% | 0.2 | about minimum |
Third base3.2 wins, +1.1 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 33 | 83% | 2.9 | in review |
| Matt Shaw | 26 | 16% | 0.3 | about minimum |
Shortstop3.2 wins, +0.4 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dansby Swanson | 33 | 84% | 2.9 | $25.3M |
| Gabriel Arias | 27 | 16% | 0.3 | ~$1.4M est. |
Left field0.6 wins, -0.6 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Alcántara | 25 | 85% | 0.5 | about minimum |
| Matt Shaw | 26 | 13% | 0.1 | about minimum |
Center field4.5 wins, +2.1 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 25 | 86% | 4.5 | $19.2M |
| Justin Dean | 31 | 14% | 0.0 | about minimum |
Right field0.2 wins, -1.2 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Shaw | 26 | 60% | 0.6 | about minimum |
| Justin Dean | 31 | 35% | -0.4 | about minimum |
Designated hitter-0.5 wins, -1.0 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 25 | 3% | 0.1 | $19.2M |
| Alex Bregman | 33 | 5% | 0.1 | in review |
| Kevin Alcántara | 25 | 3% | 0.0 | about minimum |
| Miguel Amaya | 28 | 16% | -0.2 | ~$3.1M est. |
| Pedro Ramírez | 23 | 61% | -0.4 | about minimum |
Rotation3.8 wins, -3.7 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Brown | 28 | 81% | 2.2 | about minimum |
| Cade Horton | 26 | 80% | 1.6 | about minimum |
Bullpen7.5 wins, -1.0 vs. league
| Player | Age | Share | Wins | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Palencia | 27 | 88% | 1.7 | ~$3.6M est. |
| Justin Steele | 32 | 85% | 1.3 | ~$8.4M est. |
| Eric Orze | 30 | 84% | 1.1 | about minimum |
| Phil Maton | 34 | 85% | 0.9 | $7.3M |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | 29 | 88% | 0.7 | about minimum |
| Riley Martin ° | 29 | 87% | 0.5 | about minimum |
| Shelby Miller | 37 | 86% | 0.5 | $1.3M |
| Porter Hodge ° | 26 | 87% | 0.4 | about minimum |
| Jacob Webb | 34 | 67% | 0.3 | in review |
| Jayden Murray ° | 30 | 29% | 0.1 | about minimum |
| Braxton Garrett ° | 30 | 9% | 0.0 | not entered |
| Jordan Wicks | 28 | 2% | 0.0 | ~$780K est. |
Share is of the job at that spot; a rotation or bullpen lists several jobs, so shares can add to more than 100%. A linked cost is a luxury-tax value from public reporting. How to read this.
The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at "www.retrosheet.org". Player ID links come from the Chadwick Baseball Bureau register (Open Data Commons Attribution License). Rosters, transactions, minor league and 2026 statistics, and defensive measures come from MLB sources. We publish only our own derived results. Methods are on the Model page.